According to André Dragosch, PhD, Bitcoin is currently navigating between macro uncertainty and a decline in US regulatory uncertainty. He suggests that once the macro uncertainty, particularly regarding a US recession, is fully anticipated or reflected, Bitcoin could experience a significant rally.

According to The Kobeissi Letter, the market probabilities of a US recession are increasing, with 5-year Treasuries now pricing in a 52% chance of a recession within the next 12 months, up from 45% in November. Additionally, the recession odds priced-in by the Russell 2000 index have surged to 48% from just 1% in November, signaling heightened market concerns over economic downturns.

According to The Kobeissi Letter, market probabilities of a US recession are increasing, with 5-year Treasuries now pricing in a 52% chance of a recession within the next 12 months, up from 45% in November. Additionally, the recession odds priced-in by the Russell 2000 index have surged to 48% from just 1% in November, signaling growing market concerns over a potential economic downturn.

According to @KobeissiLetter, the odds of a US recession in 2025 have surged to 43% due to the escalating trade war. This represents the highest recession probability since November 17th, as reported by @Kalshi. Traders should consider the potential impacts on market volatility and economic growth forecasts.

According to André Dragosch, PhD, US recession fears have resurfaced, which could significantly impact Bitcoin trading as investors might seek safe-haven assets. The correlation between macroeconomic trends and cryptocurrency markets suggests traders should monitor economic indicators closely. (Source: André Dragosch, Twitter)

According to The Kobeissi Letter, the US professional and business services sector has lost 248,000 jobs since May 2023, marking a significant contraction for 17 consecutive months. This is the longest streak since 2008. The downturn in this sector may influence investor sentiment in the cryptocurrency markets, as reduced employment can lead to decreased disposable income and potentially less investment in high-risk assets such as cryptocurrencies. This trend should be closely monitored by traders as it could impact market liquidity and volatility.